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第一创业股票

第一创业股票_China debt crisis just happened 002510,富满电子股票,全聚德股票,,充分了解股市

第一创业股票

Credit default swaps are storingup trouble for China,

FT,29 August 2017, by Joe Zhang,

Credit default swaps are aWall Street invention. During the crisis of 2008, they crippled anumber of significant financial companies. But where in the worldar

第一创业股票

e such instruments most popular? Not in the US, despite what youmight think, but in China.

The China Financing GuaranteeAssociation, a quasi-governmental body that regulates the guaranteecompanies (in other words, the issuers of the swaps), says it has194 member institutions, though their ranks have thinned in recentyears. Many guarantee companies have simply not bothered to becomemembers of this club.

In a parallel with theAmerican obsession with home ownership that led to the formation ofFannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the federal housing finance agencies,the Chinese government has in the past few decades done its best topromote small and medium-sized enterprises by providing them withcredit guarantees. Tens of thousands of state-owned, private andhybrid guarantee companies have come into being.

And just like Fannie Mae andFreddie Mac, China’s guarantee companies are all thinlycapitalised. This is due partly to the misconception that athird-party guarantee is sufficient for SMEs to tap commercialcredit. Mispricing in China’s CDS market is severe and chronic. Theguarantee companies typically charge only 2-3 per cent to theborrowers, but assume the full risk of their loan delinquency.

When the economy was growing fast, from the1980s through to the early 2010s, these guarantee fees seemed likemanna from heaven — so much free money. But when the economy beganto slow from 2012 onwards, default rates rose, and many guaranteecompanies disappeared. Only then did people begin to question thebusiness model and the pricing of guarantees. However, nobody seemsto know how to correct the problem of mispricing.

Unlike CDS in the US, creditguarantees in China have the following deficiency: usually, theycannot be traded. Some observers argue this is probably anadvantage for the industry because it forces deal originators to“eat what they cook”, minimising irresponsibility and recklessnessin their origination process. It is estimated that the total sizeof China’s market for such instruments is more than $500bn,excluding the credit enhancement these guarantee companies provideto SMEs’ bond sales and asset-backed securities. But no one knowsthe size of the market for sure.

The number of guaranteecompanies still operating has reduced significantly since the peakin 2011. Today, their main mission is to unwind their long-durationguarantees and liquidate the collaterals they have repossessed —dubious equity stakes here and there, land or real estate. Thereare some healthy operators, but they are few and far between.

Why should this story be of interest to theChinese public and, indeed, to outside observers? Because it is keyto understanding the strange longevity of China’s credit bubble. Itis true that the country’s credit market i

第一创业股票

s far too big, butagainst the doomsday scenarios some analysts have painted, it hasrefused to burst because of the many non-bank financialinstitutions that have served as plumbers for the banks.

China’s economic slowdown in the past five yearshas decimated its microcredit sector and, to a lesser extent, thetrust companies. Their destruction has also helped shield thecommercial banks.

As one grateful commercial banker recentlyremarked to me, CDS, bridge loans and wealth management productshave served as the banks’ sewage pipes. Half-jokingly, he describedthe CDS issuers as “selfless and heroic”.

The writer

第一创业股票

is the chairman of China SmartpayGroup and a former manager at the People’s Bank ofChina

2月开始并在4月加快的美元涨势,犹如一枚具有破坏力的球重击新兴市场货币,在阿根廷和土耳其引发危机,而且促使外资迅速撤出。人民币贬值带来了更多压力,亚洲市场遭受进一步的打击。印度和印尼等许多经济体亦因全球油价飙涨而受挫。6wF

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